Saturday, February 21, 2009

How to make money from the current market?

I think this article from business time is pretty interesting. Game enough for investment?

I read in a book written by Teh Hooi Ling ( Show me the Money ) and she wrote
" There was clearly an inverse relationship between stock prices and the equity risk premium between 1987 and 2000. Every time the risk premium measured in basis points- hit 350, it was an indication of under valuation of equities. On the other hand, a drop to about 60 points suggested that the market was overvalued. Equity risk Premium =( 1/PE - 1 year fixed deposit rate ) * 10,000

PER ( Price Earning Ratio ) is when you tally up the most recent year earnings of the 45 companies that made up the STI index Also add up their market capitalization. Dividing the combined market cap of STI index stocks with the combined earnings will give you the average PER for STI.

Taking the inverse of PER - 1 year fixed deposit rate = estimated Equity risk premium.

Market cap will fluctuate daily as the stock prices move up and down. As stock prices go up. the PER will be higher and consequently the equity risk premium will become lower. When it gets to a low enough level, it is time to reduce exposure to equities. Conversely, if stock prices go down, PER will be lower and the equity risk premium will be higher. When the premium gets too high, it is time to load up on shares.

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